Baby Formula Market in China
Updated
Baby formula is still the baby product Chinese parents buy most often, and in 2026 it is also where the money is moving. China had about 7.9 million births in 2025, down roughly 17 percent and the lowest birth rate since 1949, so the market no longer grows on volume. It grows because parents trade up. Ultra-premium formula now makes up more than half of value sales in big cities, and the gap between premium and budget keeps widening.
While Baby formula exhibits a clear dominance in the market, there is a growing preference for ultra-premium formula products.
In first- and second-tier cities, ultra-premium baby formula sales have outstripped cheaper options. Ultra-premium products account for more than half of the value sales.
In China breastfeeding rates are at lowest. More middle class mothers with disposable income choses baby formula over breastfeeding. They have increased awareness of the high nutrient contents. They follow the latest developments in the market. These educated mothers are ready to spend more on premium infant formula.
The China infant formula market in 2026: fewer babies, higher spend
The number every formula brand watches is births, and it is falling. After 9.54 million babies in 2024, 2025 dropped back to about 7.9 million. With fewer babies, the only growth left is selling a better, pricier tin to each parent. That is exactly what is happening: premium and ultra-premium lines are taking share while standard formula shrinks.
What parents pay for has changed too. The ingredients that sell in 2026 are HMO (human milk oligosaccharides, the compounds found in breast milk), A2 protein, and lactoferrin, plus goat milk for babies with sensitive stomachs. Chinese mothers read these labels closely. They check origin, certificates and batch test data before they trust a brand, and they expect proof, not slogans.
The decision happens on Xiaohongshu (RedNote) before it happens in a shop. New mothers use it as a search engine for baby products, reading honest reviews and ingredient breakdowns, then buy on Tmall or JD. If your formula is not in those notes, you are invisible at the moment of choice. Our Xiaohongshu marketing guide for 2026 shows how to get there on a small budget.
Opportunities for Brands
The demand to upgrade to premium infant formula has created opportunities. These opportunities are for products with value-added ingredients. More and more companies want to match the nutritional value of baby formula. Many of them are researching the ingredients of mother’s milk.
Brands started to add the so-called ‘next-generation’ ingredients to their premium products.
The ingredients include:
- Omega-3 and omega-6 lipids,
- Oleic-palmitic-oleic (OPO), lactoferrin,
- Prebiotics,
- Human milk oligosaccharides.
These high-end components distinguish ultra-premium infant formula from the regular ones. They also make them rather pricey.
The next-generation ingredients
DHA omega-3 and AA omega-6
DHA, or ‘good’ fat, is a major structural fat in the brain and retina of the eye. It is also a key component of the heart.
Studies have shown the importance of DHA omega-3. It is significant for infant brain, eye, and nervous system development. It has been shown to support long-term heart health.
Recently, China has included DHA omega-3 and AA omega-6 in the necessary components category. Several research studies highlighted their role in infant development. DHA omega-3 and AA omega-6 have now been upgraded. They are included in the compulsory components category. That being said, all formulators are required to include DHA omega-3 and AA omega-6.
Probiotics
Probiotics are another new generation infant formula innovation. It promises to aid in the growth of beneficial microorganisms in the gut.
Bifidobacteria and Lactobacilli are the most frequent types of probiotics. These probiotics have been shown in studies to help prevent and treat infections. Such as infectious diarrhea and atopic dermatitis (eczema) in children.
There are thought to be other health advantages and they are being searched for. Such as:
- Decreased chance of food allergies and asthma
- Reduction of urinary tract infections
- Mitigation of infant colic symptoms
Foreign formula brands have established probiotic-based products in the China market. Though only a few Chinese companies have done so.
With the growing interest, more brands are expected to follow the trend.
Lactoferrin
Lactoferrin is a protein found in breast milk, along with the other three major proteins. It helps to protect babies from harmful bacteria by binding to the iron that the bacteria need to grow.
An infant’s immune system is functioning at full potential from the moment of birth. However they have not been exposed to any diseases or sicknesses. Their immunity doesn’t have a “memory” yet.
With the help of lactoferrin, the newborn’s immune system develops and activates natural defenses in the small intestine. It is an extremely fragile organ in the first months of a baby’s life.
Thus infants need lactoferrin as it stimulates the defense system to ‘train’ the newborn’s body to fight attacks.
This remarkable protein provides a high functional value to infant formulas
Prebiotics ( HMOs)
The most demanded component in the infant formula market in China is prebiotics; human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs).
Human milk oligosaccharides have only been discovered in breast milk up to now. However, thanks to scientific study, even moms who opt for baby formula can offer their children this incredible component.
HMOs are unique, non-digestible, complex carbohydrates. They have a prebiotic function. In other words, they nourish the good bacteria in our gut. HMOs don’t only support the gut; they help absorption into the bloodstream. So they contribute to a healthy immune system.
Out of the 200 HMOs found in human milk, only a few are developed commercially to be put into infant formula. Two notable and abundantly used HMOs in high-quality infant formulas are 2’-fucosyllactose (2’-FL) and 3-galactosyl lactose (3’GL).
Some of the world’s biggest companies have already started making products with HMOs. Abbott, Nestlé, Mead Johnson, and Danone are among them.
It is obvious that HMO-based infant formula will account for the greatest number of new product introductions in the coming years.
HMO-based products are ultra-premium in the Baby formula market in China. Local dairy giants Feihe, Yili, H&H, and Yashili have been developing new brands. They are utilizing HMOs to catch up with the market trends
Oleic-Palmitic-Oleic (OPO)
Recent studies have proved using baby formula with high sn-2 palmitate improves fatty acid and calcium absorption. That is to say, it is beneficial for infant bone health, improved bone mineral content, and bone density.
The use of baby formula with high sn-2 palmitic acid has also been shown to decrease hard stools as a result; less crying time.
As Chinese parents become more aware of the benefits of OPO, the demand for this unique ingredient is growing rapidly. Almost 90% of the global demand for OPO comes from baby formula market in China
Consequently, OPO is one of the most common ingredients in premium and ultra-premium infant formula brands sold in the baby formula market in China.
World’s leading baby formula producers have created premium OPO brands. Exclusively for the Chinese formula market.
This includes Illuma-Nestlé, and Aptamil-Danone.
Local players have also launched specialized brands with OPO. Including Youhu-Feihe, Yili, Mengniu, Astrobaby, and Bright Dairy.
Goat Milk Formula
Popularity for goat milk-based formulas has grown over the years, with extensive use in Asia.
Parents prefer to use goat milk formula for their babies for various reasons, from personal preference to health concerns.
The smaller fat molecules in goat milk are similar to those found in breast milk, making them easy for a baby’s digestive system to break down. Therefore goat milk is said to be more easily digested by some parents, especially for fussy, gassy babies or infants who have reflux.
Baby formula market in China, due to its increasingly higher nutritional value, has become an alternative to cow milk formulas.
Several companies produce goat milk-based infant formulas. The three most prominent ones are Kabrita (Ausnutria), Yili Dairy, and Mengnui Dairy. Out of these, Kabrita holds almost 60% of the market share. They were one of the earliest to launch this product.
The future of infant formula in China
The Chinese infant formula market grows in value and parents are searching for the best products available on the market. The slowing growth rates of infant formula in China by volume, contrasted with the growing value increase. This will result in consolidation and a highly competitive market.
More middle class parents are searching for premium and ultra premium baby formulas. They are looking for the next generation ingredients to give their babies the best possible start to life. They also want to know that these products provide nutrition free from heavy metals, pesticide residues and other chemicals and toxins.
As a result, dairy firms are encouraging more research to develop new components. They want to bring infant formula closer to mother’s milk, the golden standard of the industry.
SEO Agency China helps formula brands get found
SEO Agency China (SAC) is a China-focused agency built for smaller and challenger brands. We help foreign formula and baby brands get found on Xiaohongshu, Baidu and Tmall, win honest reviews, and sell without the big-agency price tag.
Our mission is to help international brand to succeed in China
The 2026 market reality: what the data shows
China’s infant formula market is worth RMB 129 billion (roughly USD 18 billion) in 2025, making it the largest single market for infant formula on the planet, accounting for 36% of global sales. Analysts at Renub Research project the market will reach USD 33.4 billion by 2033, growing at a 7% CAGR. Yet volume is shrinking: the market declined 5.6% in value during 2024 despite births rising by over 500,000, because the country has 28.2 million children aged 0-3 today versus 47.2 million in 2019, according to Daxue Consulting. Growth now comes entirely from price, not from population. The brands winning today sell premium science, not just formula.
The premium segment reached 37% of the total market in 2024, up from 32.8% in 2023, according to Dairy Reporter. That shift is not slowing down. Survey data cited by Kathryn Read shows 83% of parents are willing to pay more for certified-quality, clean-label formulas. Gen-Z parents, who now represent 45% of buyers, demand peer-reviewed ingredients and personalized nutrition guidance before they commit to a brand.
Two ingredients define the premium tier today: Human Milk Oligosaccharides (HMOs) and A2 protein. HMOs were approved for use in Chinese infant formula in recent years, and brands that added them saw immediate uptake. A2 Milk’s China segment grew 14% in the first half of 2025, driven entirely by premium positioning around the A2 protein story. Aptamil grew 20% over three years by pushing ultra-premium formulations through Tmall and targeted KOL content.
Goat milk formula is the fastest-growing sub-segment. Parents link it to digestibility and lower allergenicity. Domestic brands like Ausnutria have built entire premium lines around goat milk and are now exporting this positioning back into Western markets.
For a foreign brand entering China, the implication is clear: do not compete on price. The market consolidating at the top means mid-tier products are being squeezed out. Position on clinical evidence, source transparency, and ingredient specificity. Brands without a strong science story lose shelf space to those that have one.
Offline, 60% of sales still move through specialist mother-and-baby stores. These stores are not just retail points. They function as trust channels. Sales staff act as informal advisors and their recommendations carry weight. A brand with no offline presence, even a small one, is essentially invisible to a large part of the market.
Where sales happen now: platforms and the digital shift
Online sales now account for 40% of total infant formula revenue in China, and that number is rising. E-commerce channel sales grew more than 30% for major players in the first half of 2025, according to NutraIngredients. Tmall’s share of maternal and baby product sales has grown for three consecutive years, reaching nearly 40% of online sales in 2024.
But the conversion path no longer starts on Tmall. It starts on Xiaohongshu (RedNote) and Douyin. Brand searches on these two platforms more than tripled in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024. Biostime, now ranked among the top two most recommended newborn formula brands on Xiaohongshu, credits the platform for a significant share of new customer acquisition. The formula is consistent: parents find a brand through a KOC (Key Opinion Consumer) review post, research it on WeChat, then buy on Tmall or JD.com.
In May 2025, Alibaba launched its “Red Cat” initiative with Xiaohongshu, embedding shoppable Tmall product links directly inside Xiaohongshu content. That integration collapses the path from discovery to purchase into a single tap. Content e-commerce for the baby category is growing at 76% annually on some measures.
Cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) remains relevant for foreign brands that cannot yet complete full domestic registration. English-label products grew 7.1% in H1 FY2025 while domestic Chinese-label products shrank 8% in value. The CBEC channel lets a brand test Chinese consumer response before committing to full GB-standard reformulation and domestic listing. JD.com’s cross-border arm and Tmall Global are the two main entry points for this route.
One practical note: 75% of urban parents in China scan blockchain QR codes on packaging for traceability verification before purchase, per Daxue Consulting data. If a product’s supply chain is not visible and verifiable at the point of sale, it will lose sales to a competitor whose is.
What changed between 2024 and 2026
Regulation is the biggest structural change. In March 2025, China’s National Health Commission released GB 25596-2025, the new national food safety standard for special medical purpose (FSMP) infant formula, set to take effect in March 2027. The standard reclassifies choline as a mandatory ingredient, bans sucrose as a carbohydrate source alongside fructose, and adds six new product categories including ketogenic and anti-reflux formulas, according to CIRS Group. Compliance costs across the sector rose 30%, squeezing brands that lack reformulation budgets.
The competitive map shifted too. Chinese domestic brands rebuilt consumer trust after years of caution following the 2008 melamine scandal. By 2022, domestic brands held 60% market share. Feihe led for six consecutive years. But in 2024-2025, the new GB standards hit domestic players harder than foreign ones on certain product lines, because domestic brands had more SKUs to reformulate. Foreign brands with simpler, science-led portfolios adapted faster. Aptamil reached roughly 13% market share. a2 Milk climbed to 6.4%.
Consumer attitude also shifted. The single-child preference for “fewer but better” products accelerated. The Chinese government introduced a RMB 3,600 annual subsidy per child under age 3 in 2025, freeing up household spend. That money flowed upmarket, not to volume. Brands that entered 2026 without a premium tier already in place are now rebuilding strategy mid-market, which is the hardest position to be in.
Frequently asked questions
Can foreign infant formula brands still sell in China in 2026?
Yes, but the entry conditions are more demanding than five years ago. Any formula sold domestically must meet China’s GB national standards and pass registration with the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). That process can take 12 to 24 months and requires full formula disclosure, factory audits, and stability testing. An alternative is cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) through Tmall Global or JD Worldwide, which allows foreign-label products to reach Chinese consumers without full domestic registration. CBEC is a valid market-entry test but carries volume and SKU restrictions. Brands planning a long-term China presence need to start the SAMR registration process early and budget for reformulation if current recipes do not meet GB standards. The new GB 25596-2025 standard, effective March 2027, adds further compliance requirements that need immediate attention if registration timelines are to be met.
Which platforms should a foreign baby formula brand prioritize in China?
The answer depends on the goal. For building awareness and trust with new parents, Xiaohongshu and Douyin are the starting point. Both platforms index heavily toward young mothers seeking peer reviews and ingredient education. Xiaohongshu in particular is where brand searches tripled in H1 2025 for infant formula. For direct sales, Tmall and JD.com remain the primary transaction platforms, with Tmall holding nearly 40% of online baby category sales. WeChat is the relationship layer: after a parent discovers a brand on Xiaohongshu and buys on Tmall, they often join a brand’s WeChat community for feeding advice, repurchase prompts, and loyalty content. A realistic launch plan covers all three layers, even if budgets mean starting with one platform at a time. Trying to build only on one channel while ignoring the others usually results in strong awareness with weak conversion, or strong conversion with zero repeat purchase.
How important are KOLs and KOCs for infant formula marketing in China?
Very important, but the type of influencer matters more than follower count. Macro KOLs (celebrities, top-tier parenting influencers) drive visibility but have limited credibility for product-specific claims, especially after China tightened advertising standards for infant formula. KOCs, meaning regular parents with engaged small followings, carry more weight because their reviews read as genuine peer feedback. Biostime’s rise to top-two recommendation status on Xiaohongshu came largely through KOC seeding rather than celebrity partnerships. The most effective approach combines a small number of credentialed experts (pediatricians, registered dietitians) for scientific credibility with a broader network of KOCs for relatable day-to-day content. Budgets should reflect this: seeding 200 KOCs will typically outperform one expensive celebrity post. Brands that try to replicate Western influencer strategies verbatim in China often spend large amounts on the wrong tier.
What do Chinese parents look for when choosing infant formula?
Safety and ingredient transparency come first. The 2008 melamine scandal left a permanent mark on how Chinese parents evaluate formula brands. They check ingredients closely, verify production origins, and increasingly scan QR codes linked to supply chain records. After safety, science-backed nutrition is the second filter: ingredients like HMOs, A2 protein, DHA, and choline are now expected features in the premium tier rather than selling points. Source matters too: European origin (Dutch, German, French) carries a strong quality halo for many parents. Brand reputation on Xiaohongshu and parent community forums is the third factor. A single negative review from a credible source can suppress sales significantly. Price is less of a barrier than brands often assume: 83% of parents surveyed said they would pay more for certified-quality formula. The buyer is rarely looking for the cheapest option. They are looking for the option they trust most.
How to move forward
A foreign brand entering or scaling in China’s infant formula market needs to move on several fronts at once. Start with regulatory: map your current formula against the GB standards and the new FSMP rules effective March 2027. Identify gaps early. Reformulation takes time, and registration takes longer.
On distribution, decide whether CBEC or full domestic listing fits your timeline and budget. CBEC via Tmall Global is faster to market. Full domestic listing gives more volume headroom. Use a reliable local distributor with proven mother-and-baby channel access to cover offline.
On digital, build your presence on Xiaohongshu before Tmall. Trust is built before transactions happen. Invest in KOC seeding and science-led content. Run Douyin for reach and short-video storytelling. Use WeChat for community retention and repurchase.
Brands that try to do everything at once without local expertise tend to burn budget fast. A focused entry with the right partners is faster and cheaper than a broad launch without them. If you want to map out the right approach for your specific brand, get in touch with the team.
Marcus Zhan is a China marketing specialist based in Shanghai. He covers digital marketing, consumer trends, and brand strategy for the Chinese market.
Sources: Daxue Consulting, China Infant Formula Market | Dairy Reporter, China Infant Milk Formula 2025 | Kathryn Read, Infant Formula Sales Trends China 2025 | NutraIngredients, China Infant Formula H1 2025 | CIRS Group, GB 25596-2025 Standard Comparison